Candidate visits

Taking another monthly look at the candidates campaign visits in this post.

Here was June 3rd to July 4th:

Obama
2 visits: MO, OH, MI, NH
1 visit: CO, ND, MT, MN, NV, NM, FL, WI, VA, PA

McCain
3 visits: FL, PA
2 visits: LA, VA, OH
1 visit: NH, CT, NJ, MO, MN, NV


Here is July 5th to August 5th:

Obama:

3 visits: MO
2 visits: OH, VA, NY, GA  
1 visit: MI, FL, IA, NC, CA, IN

McCain:

3 visits: OH, CO, WI
2 visits: PA, NH, MO, CA, ME  
1 visit: SD, FL, VA, MI, NV, NM, LA, NY

Obama spent 13 days in '04 red states, and just 4 days in '04 blue states. Obama had 10 days less in the month for visiting the states than McCain, due to a short vacation and his worldwide trip. Nevertheless, he was even more aggressive in this month, going from a 11:7 red state vs blue state ratio to a 13:4 one this month.

McCain spent 14 days in '04 red states, and 13 days in '04 blue states, this month. That's much more equal than the 11:7 red-blue visit ratio he had last month to the states.

These states correspond pretty directly with the states in which the candidates are purchasing TV advertising. CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA, MN, WI and WV (to reach SE Ohio) for MCain. Add in FL, IN, AK, MT, NC, GA, and ND, that Obama is also contesting, and that's the terrain for '08-- ~19 states.

Obama is not contesting in some usual states that a Democrat has, KY, WV, AR, TN, in favor of places like ND, AK, GA, and IN. Others, like VA, NC and MO were places that Kerry tried to compete in '04, but ultimately pulled back.

McCain is not competing at all in the NW states of OR & WA, they have given up there. Likewise in NJ. He continues to make some chatter about CA, and hasn't yet bought ads in the 7 states where Obama is trying to broaden the playing field.



Display:


Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

Good post.


by mrrara on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 10:44:58 AM EST

The advertising time graph is here: (none / 0)

If anyone's interested:

Or linked here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/o bama-on-offense-in-florida.html


by Dale Johnson 007 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 10:55:59 AM EST

Good information. (none / 0)

I don't think anyone bought McCain's California bluff.


by Geekesque on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 10:59:13 AM EST

Re: Candidate visits (2.00 / 1)

Interesting stuff, thanks.

Obama and Co seem to be exuding confidence in their strategy, despite the constantly shifting polls. Good for them.  There is plenty of time (and money) to tackle the traditional swing states if it comes to that. For now, they are doing the good work of the Party by organizing and registering in often-ignored states. Even if Obama doesn't pull off one red-state win, those efforts will pay dividends in downticket races and the the next cycle.

Everyone says Obama is not on the offensive because he isn't running ads mocking celebrities or making jokes about tire gauges, like the honorable Saint McCain. I beg to differ - Obama's entire campaign is on the offense. McCain is shitting his pants (and not just because he ate too much fiber for breakfast) and his desperate attempts to mock Obama are proof of that. Bad jokes and cynical bitching aren't going to fly in the Fall, and they certainly aren't going to fly in the debates. Without his precious 'offshore drilling', McCain doesn't have any issue to cling to, so he is grasping at straws.

And let me remind everyone that Obama hasn't even begun to start his on-air campaign. That will begin during the Olympics with $5 million in national ads that McCain simply cannot afford to counter, no matter how many energy company employees give him almost-illegal contributions.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:09:51 AM EST

Re: Candidate visits (2.00 / 2)

Actually, apparently McCain has countered with a $6 million ad buy.  

http://adage.com/campaigntrail/post?arti cle_id=130119


by rfahey22 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:17:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

That just totally ruined my day...


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

Sorry, bud.  Just look at Gallup's daily tracking poll and let hope spring again.


by rfahey22 on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

Obama made a mistake coming to Baldwin Wallace college today... it will interfere with Cleveland Browns training camp this afternoon, and that has a lot of browns fans mad...  The last month just has not been very good to us, has it?


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:22:04 AM EST

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

As a huge Browns fan myself (I grew up near Youngstown) and an avid reading of DawgsByNature, I think you are overstating this.  It is training camp after all, and the end of it to boot (our first preseason game is Thursday).

I think Browns, and Cleveland sports fans in general, would be more pissed if he had an event on a Sunday afternoon in October than they will be about this.


by DCInertia on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 12:20:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

I hope Krusty keeps wasting visits in Pa, because that's just what they are: wasted. Welcome to Navy Blue Keystone State.


by moondancer on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:54:52 AM EST

no AR and WV engagement... (none / 0)

is a tip that HRC will not be on the ticket because with her, these two States might be in play.

It looks like MO, OH and VA will get the most Obama action beyond the minimum path to victory (Kerry States plus IA, CO and NM).  I bet that McCaskill is really pushing them to go all out for MO.

The differences in offices, staff and volunteers is already large and will only get larger.  I guess the Elephants think that field doesn't make that much of a difference - or they can't do it/afford it.  If field is worth 2% to 3%, that could make a difference in some States.  


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 12:42:40 PM EST

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland,  Illinois, Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see  www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan


by mvymvy on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 12:46:52 PM EST

Re: Candidate visits (none / 0)

"McCain is not competing at all in the NW states of OR & WA, they have given up there. "

Damn. I was hoping they would make a HUGE media buy in Seattle, and lose the state 60-40.

Oh well, SOMEONE over there isn't a complete idiot.


My mom believed in Jesus, the Pope and FDR..... Just not necessarily in that order.
by WashStateBlue on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 07:04:18 PM EST


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