When the sample is shrunk to Likely Voters the Obama lead is just three points, 49-46.
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit /1066a308Politics.pdf
Of course the MSM lead is negative:
''Doubts About Obama's Readiness Raise the Stakes for his Foreign Trip''
Holes in Barack Obama's foreign affairs resume are spurring doubt about his readiness for a crisis - raising the stakes on his upcoming trip overseas and posing potential opportunity for his otherwise weaker Republican opponent, John McCain. Obama continues to hold most of the advantages in the presidential race, in enthusiasm, levels of partisanship, personal qualities and trust on top domestic issues, notably No. 1, the economy; and he's improved in the past month among swing voter groups. But his experience gap vs. McCain shows up especially in global politics. Americans by a wide margin, 63-26 percent, pick McCain as more knowledgeable on world affairs, rate him much more highly in terms of readiness for the world stage and military leadership alike, and put him ahead of Obama by 50-41 percent in trust to handle "an unexpected major crisis."Obama remains strong on the home front. He leads McCain by 19 points in trust to handle the economy, 14 points on the deficit and 10 points on immigration, the latter a turnaround from a McCain lead in the spring. By contrast, the two run about evenly in trust to deal with international affairs overall, as well as Iraq, Iran and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. And McCain has a scant 6-point edge in trust to handle terrorism, though Obama's moved up on this measure since spring. Obama scores on one international issue: Americans by 2-1 think he's better able to restore America's image abroad, overwhelmingly seen as having been damaged by George W. Bush. And McCain's competitiveness on foreign affairs is weakened by its relatively low importance overall: Just 28 percent call it "extremely important" in their vote, compared with 50 percent who say that about the economy. Iraq and terrorism, however, rate higher, at 42 and 37 percent "extremely important," respectively.
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